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December 2014 Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park EOM Real Estate Market Trends

Introduction

Hi Marinites. Real estate market activity in the Bay Area increased in December 2014. Both month to month and year-over-year gains were made in the number of homes sold. An increase in December homes sold over November homes sold is not uncommon. As in recent months, price appreciation was lower than the early months of 2014. However, the average price of homes sold, which has not moved much since the summer, remained almost 10% higher than in December 2013.

“The Bay Area’s residential real estate market ended 2014 on a cautiously optimistic note, with moderate year-over-year increases in both median price and sales counts,” said John Karevoll, DataQuick analyst. “Supply continues to be constrained, and the mortgage market remains difficult. As long-term trends, cash sales and investor purchases are declining slowly, but they are still significant market factors. We know that there is a significant amount of pent-up demand lying in wait, and there is a good chance the market could see a surge this spring and summer as more homes are put up for sale.”

Additional highlights for the end of the year Bay Area real estate market in December 2014 included:

  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for a little more than a fifth of mortgages approved in December 2014. This was down slightly from last month.
  • Again, the volume of jumbo loans approved in December 2014 was a little more than half, 54.1%. This was a slight decline from the previous month.
  • Resales of home foreclosures made up 3.7% of the resold homes in December 2014. This remains significantly lower than the levels seen over the recent 17 years.
  • Similarly, short sales on the homes sold made up 4.0% of the Bay Area homes resold in December 2014.
    Absentee buyers, usually investors, made about 18.3% of the homes purchases in the Bay Area in December 2014. This was an insignificant increase from November’s figures.
  • Lastly, the mortgage payments in the Bay Area averaged $2,264 in December 2014. With an adjustment for inflation, that figure is 21.6% lower than the typical payment made in the spring of 1989.

Given that perspective on the overall Bay Area real estate market, let’s take a more detailed look at the December 2014 end-of-month statistics that highlight the Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park neighborhood real estate market trends.

Listings

ForSale & Sold & Pending & New Listings

December 2014

All the real estate market listings indicators in the San Rafael 94903 neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park declined in December 2014. With all these indicators coming in below the associated levels of a year ago, only the homes sold and home pending figures were relatively close to the numbers seen from a month ago.

Sale Price / List Price Percentage and Days-on-Market

DOM v SP/LP percentage

December 2014

The average Days-on-Market (DOM) on homes sold was exactly the same as last month, 42 days.  As with last month, this remained higher than the most recent support level and there still isn’t any clear indication of the direction in trend. Similarly, the percentage of sale price/list price remained the same as last month; coming in at 99%.

Inventory

Months of Inventory v Pending Sales

December 2014

December’s months of inventory in the neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park declined slightly to 2.7; keeping it higher than in more than the last 15 months.

Average Prices

Avg Price on 'For Sale' & 'Sold' Homes

December 2014

The average price of homes sold dropped significantly below its recent support level to $654,000 in December 2014. Meanwhile, the rise in the average price of homes for sale was fairly significant, increasing to $758,000. The resulting gap of $104,000 was the largest in seen i the last 6 months while being reversed yet again.

Average Price per Square Foot

Avg Price per SqFt

December 2014

The average price per sqft of homes sold in the San Rafael neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin and San Rafael Park continued to decreased to $397. This number again is another warning sign of a potential long term downward trend in prices.

Conclusion

The real estate market in the San Rafael neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin and San Rafael Park differed quite a lot from the overall Bay Area real estate market:

  • New listings continued their freefall.
  • Average prices declined significantly.
  • The months of inventory remained relatively consistent.
  • The average price of homes sold declined but remained with in its recent range while the average price of of homes for sale reversed last month’s drop.
  • The average price per sqft fell once again.

Buying or selling in this kind of real estate market environment requires a skilled and experienced real estate agent such as Liz McCarthy. Contact her and have an honest discussion about your particular situation.

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