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November 2014 Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park EOM Real Estate Market Trends

Introduction

Hi Marinites. November 2014 home sales in the Bay Area residential real estate market dropped to their lowest level since 2008.  This was generally attributed to a low number of homes for sale, a mortgage market that can only be described as “challenging” to cautious buyers and to a quirk in the calendar which resulted in a fewer number of days on which deals could officially be recorded. The year-over-year, single-digit rise in average sale price was its smallest rise since May 2012.

“Each calendar month has its own set of characteristics, its own personality. November is always kind of an interlude month, and the statistics aren’t really very good for predicting upcoming activity. That said, we did see a continuation of long-term trends: Low supply levels, a dysfunctional mortgage market and dormant market categories. This could change fast, and the big question then will be just how much pent-up demand is out there. No one knows,” said DataQuick analyst, John Karevoll.

Given that perspective on the overall Bay Area real estate market, let’s take a more detailed look at the November 2014 end-of-month statistics that highlight the Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park neighborhood real estate market trends.

Listings

ForSale, Sold, Pending, & New Listings

November 2014

All the real estate market listings indicators in the San Rafael 94903 neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park declined significantly in November 2014. All these indicators are also below the associated levels from a year ago as well.  Homes for sale was the only indicator that did not experience such a decline, coming in the same as the month before at 48.

Sale Price / List Price Percentage and Days-on-Market

DOM v SP/LP percentage

November 2014

The average Days-on-Market (DOM) on homes sold declined, but only slightly to 42 days.  This was still above the most recent support level.  There is still no clear indication the trend direction. This number was accompanied by a slight decrease in the percentage of sale price/list price.  This number remained above 100% at 101%.

Inventory

Months of Inventory v Pending Sales

November 2014

November’s months of inventory in the neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin & San Rafael Park rose to 2.7, its highest level in at least 15 months. This reflects the stable number of homes for sale combined with the decline in homes sold.

Average Prices

Avg Price on For Sale & Sold Homes

November 2014

The average price of homes sold continued its upward trend, rising to $781,000 in November 2014. Meanwhile, the average price of homes for sale decline was fairly significant, decreasing to $701,000.  The resulting gap was, once again, reversed.

Average Price per Square Foot

Avg Price per SqFt

November 2014

The average price per sqft of homes sold in the San Rafael neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin and San Rafael Park, again, decreased to $424. This number broke through the support level of the recent plateau range of $432-$458 seen during the previous 6 months.

Conclusion

The following bullet points summarizes the real estate market observed in the San Rafael neighborhoods of Marinwood, Lucas Valley, Mont Marin and San Rafael Park.  Overall, this is quite consistent with the Bay Area real estate market:

  • New listings remain somewhat stable.
  • Average prices broke down through their recent plateau levels.
  • The months of inventory increased to its highest level in the past year plus.
  • The average price of homes sold continued its rise while the average price of homes for sale reversed their short-term upward trend.
  • The average price per sqft decreased once again.

Buying or selling in this kind of real estate market environment requires a skilled and experienced real estate agent such as Liz McCarthy. Contact her to get things started.

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